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Greetings, Bullish Believers!

Welcome to the Hodl Report, your weekly dose of hopium - because if we all believe hard enough, surely the charts will listen… right? RIGHT?! 🙃📊

This week, we’re breaking it down:

• Market Pain: It’s been rough - let’s unpack the damage 🤕

• Bull vs. Bear: Who won the week (or at least lost less)? 📊

• What’s Next: Moon, meh, or meltdown? 🔮

• Big News: The headlines that actually matter 📰

• Crypto LOLs: Because if we don’t laugh, we’ll cry 😂

Let’s get into it! 🚀

It’s been brutal out there this week, frens. 😱

The crypto markets look uglier than your ex’s text messages at 3 AM, and the $90K sideways dream just got rug-pulled.

Yet, fundamentals are still solid, political and regulatory winds are blowing in the right direction, so why is the market behaving irrationally and prices are tanking?

🩸 Bitcoin’s bleeding, fear is everywhere, and the streets are painted red. Time to huddle up, debrief, and figure out what’s really going on.

So, what’s causing the carnage?

Let’s break down the good, the bad, and what might happen next.

BULLISH DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEK 🚀

1. A Big Lawsuit Flush
   Coinbase, OpenSea, Robinhood, Uniswap, Gemini, and Consensys have all gotten to breathe a sign of relief with the SEC having dropped their cases against them. These are some of the biggest names in the business folks!
   
   Word on the street is that the Ripple suit is on track for the same outcome.
   
   With the SEC backing off faster than a Karen asking to speak with the manager, Cameron Winklevoss (of Gemini fame) fires off some spicy thoughts on the SEC’s new approach.

2. Regulation Paving the Way
   With these lawsuits in the rearview, major TradFi heavyweights (hey there, Citadel) are entering the crypto scene.
   
   

   

   
   The gates are finally cracking open for the massive institutions waiting on the sidelines - and they don’t mess around.

3. GameStop Going Full Bitcoin?
   Strive Asset Management is pushing GameStop to pull a “Strategy” (i.e., adopt the Bitcoin standard and funnel their $5B treasury into BTC). If they bite, it’ll be like the WallStreetBets GME short squeeze meets crypto mania. Buckle up.

4. FTX Payouts Fueling Reinvestment
   $7B in refunds are on the way in the coming weeks, and let’s face it - degens will probably be funneling a chunk right back into crypto. Old habits die hard.

5. Big Players Keep Accumulating
   Michael Saylor, WorldLiberty, and BlackRock - these whales are still on a crypto shopping spree. When whales feed, minnows rejoice… eventually.
   
   

   

BEARISH DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEK 📉

1. Memecoin Meltdown
   With the arrival of a crypto-friendly president, we all dreamed of a strategic BTC reserve… but we got TRUMP and MELANIA tokens instead. Then Milei’s LIBRA took its turn rugging investors. Poof - an entire memecoin sector up in flames. Since one of this cycle’s big narratives was memes, that meltdown also took some wind out of Bitcoin’s sails.

2. Solana Unlock Jitters
   A big chunk of SOL (about $1.5B) from the FTX lock up is hitting the market tomorrow when fiat on/off-ramps are basically off sipping margaritas. More supply + half-asleep liquidity = potential price trouble. Stay frosty, folks.

3. Tariffs
   Trump confirmed 25% tariffs going ahead on Canada and Mexico, hammered EU with the same and added more tariffs to China. Market lost their lunch this week. Tariffs = inflation = central banks playing hawk = risk assets going bleh. Oh, joy.

4. Bybit’s Mega-Hack
   North Korea’s Lazarus Group nabbed $1.4B in ETH from Bybit - the second-largest centralized exchange in the game - and they’re laundering and dumping that ETH like it’s going out of style. That’s a big chunk, and dumping that much ETH definitely doesn’t help price stability.

While we keep hyping up the bullish vibes with your weekly dose of hopium, this doesn’t mean we won’t dip further before hitting new ATHs.

The fundamentals are still solid, and there’s no earth-shattering news to justify all the market doom and gloom.

So where do we go from here? 👇

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? 🔮

TLDR: We’re in a perfect storm which includes a technical breakdown of Bitcoin’s downward trend, tariff tensions, memecoin chaos, and the biggest hack in crypto history.

That’s enough to spook even the boldest of bulls.

Near-Term Outlook

• Arthur Hayes Might Be Right
  The ex-BitMEX CEO been calling for a drop before the big run, and doubled down on it this week.
  
  

  

  
  He expects Trump’s policies, war efforts, and new “Mar-a-Lago Accord” (yeah, that’s the official branding for a plan that includes DOGE to cut government waste) to eventually stabilize or even boost the macro environment.
  
  Throw in a falling USD, decreasing treasury yields, and more constructive crypto regulation - suddenly, we might be primed for liftoff.

• Re-Focus on Real Fundamentals
  With memecoins blasting off and then crashing to Earth, investors are reminded that “pumpamentals” ain’t so reliable. Expect the upcoming spotlight to shift to actual fundamentals.
  
  DeFi protocols, L1s, crypto-native apps and legit revenue-generating projects that solve actual problems. Yes, actual fundamentals - so old-school, right?

Let’s face it: there’s no single magic bullet to reawaken the bull tomorrow.

We’ve got a laundry list of potential big wins, as covered above, but they could take weeks or months to play out.

In the meantime, the best strategy might be to sit tight and wait for clarity - macro and regulatory. We want to see if the next wave of projects can do more than just pump and dump.

We can also look to the crypto oracles and see what wisdom they’re dropping:

Stay strong, frens.

When in doubt, zoom out and see that we are still well within in the long-term bull market’s upwards trend.

Now pat yourself on the back for living through yet another fiery chapter in the world of crypto.

You earned it. 👊

1. Bitcoin Purchases Confined? IMF Approves $1.4B Credit Facility for El Salvador: El Salvador secures a fresh credit line from the IMF, but conditions reportedly limit further Bitcoin expansions. Officials say the country remains committed to its BTC strategy, although the IMF’s oversight could slow future crypto moves.

2. Bybit Hack Post-Mortem: Safe Infrastructure Compromised, Plus Record $1.1B Bitcoin ETF Outflows: A deeper look into the Bybit hack suggests a critical infrastructure lapse that opened the door for attackers. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs saw an unprecedented $1.1 billion withdrawn, signaling potential investor jitters across the board.

3. US Bitcoin Reserve Bills Fail Despite Trump Pledges: Legislative attempts to establish a formal Bitcoin reserve ran aground in Congress, even with strong advocacy from the Trump camp. Critics argue the initiatives lacked clarity and threatened to shake the existing monetary framework.

4. Non-Crypto Giants Test the Ethereum Waters: Major corporations are experimenting with Ethereum for projects like tokenized loyalty programs and supply chain solutions. Observers say these pilots could accelerate mainstream blockchain adoption if they prove both useful and profitable.

5. Inside the Mar-a-Lago Accord: A Peek at Trump’s Economic Strategy: This reported plan aims to boost manufacturing and government revenue while incorporating DOGE as a cost-saving measure, raising eyebrows across Washington. Critics label it a campaign stunt, but supporters see room for real policy impact.

6. Stablecoin Legislation a Top Priority for Lawmakers: Bipartisan support is building behind clearer stablecoin rules, with financial watchdogs concerned about consumer safety and market stability. Industry leaders applaud the move, saying a regulated framework could unlock wider institutional adoption.

7. ‘Pump Fun’ X Account Hacked, Users Urged to Steer Clear: Followers of the popular crypto influencer account are warned not to click unfamiliar links or engage with suspicious posts. Security experts say it’s another reminder of how social media hacks can lead to major phishing scams in the crypto space.

Big thanks for making it to the end of this week’s Hodl Report! 👊

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Happy Friday!

Disclaimer: The content from Hodl Report should not be taken as trading, investment or financial advice or solicitation to buy or sell any assets. This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. Please be careful out there and DYOR (do your own research).