Ceasefire Pump... Reality Pending 📉
Temporary relief pushed BTC higher, but inflation, no rate cuts, and global tensions still loom. Expect volatility and probable return to the $60Ks
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Howdy Hodlers,
Pretty calm week…
Except for, you know… the Iran war dominating every headline on Earth.
That’s been the main character for weeks and somehow, a temporary ceasefire managed to calm things down just enough to push Bitcoin back into the $70Ks.
Markets love even a hint of peace. Even if it’s fragile. Even if nobody fully trusts it.
But the real question is…
Will it last?
We’ve got thoughts.
Let’s dive in 👇
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For the past few weeks, one thing has been running the show:
Iran war headlines.
That’s been the main driver of Bitcoin’s price - not fundamentals, not adoption, just pure geopolitical whiplash.
Zoom out though… and it’s almost funny.
Bitcoin hasn’t really gone anywhere. We’ve been stuck in a tight range for the past month.
Unless…
You’re a full-blown degen trading leverage like us. 🙃
Then yeah, it’s been a party:
Big swings.
Fast candles.
Quick wins.
Quicker losses.
Exactly the kind of chaos day traders dream about.
If you stop and think about it for more than 10 seconds though…
It’s a bit sad that you’re basically trading headlines about war.
Yeah. Let’s not dwell on that too long.
Well… we won’t recap the war - you’ve seen it everywhere.
But finding the truth in all the noise?
Good luck.
Even with the temporary ceasefire giving markets a brief sigh of relief, the bigger picture still looks… messy:
Inflation ticking back up
Rate cuts basically cancelled
Ongoing geopolitical tension (plural)
Tariff drama still lurking
So, what’s the setup?
Markets want one thing:
Calm. Predictability. Stability.
What do we have?
A temporary ceasefire… in one of multiple conflicts.
Yeah. Not exactly reassuring.
We think the market eventually leans back toward reality.
Which likely means a move back into the $60Ks in the coming weeks. Depending on how real the market wants to get, we might test a new low into the $50Ks.
That’s how we’re positioning.
Could we be wrong?
Of course. It’s crypto.
But until macro clears up, it’s hard to see sustained upside.
Stay sharp. Stay disciplined.
And keep the trading tight!
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Hodl Headlines
The Week’s Most Interesting News
Morgan Stanley Launches Bitcoin Trust: Morgan Stanley Investment Management has introduced a Bitcoin trust aimed at giving institutional clients direct exposure to BTC through a regulated vehicle. The launch signals continued expansion of traditional finance into crypto investment products.
Wall Street and Crypto Firms Clash Over Market Structure: Tensions are rising between traditional financial institutions and crypto-native firms as both sides compete over control of emerging market infrastructure. The debate centers on regulation, custody, and who will dominate the next phase of financial rails.
Institutional Push Toward Tokenization Accelerates: Large financial players are increasingly embracing tokenization as a way to modernize capital markets, improve settlement efficiency, and unlock new liquidity. The shift suggests blockchain integration is moving from experimentation to core financial infrastructure.
Saylor Says Bitcoin Has Bottomed, Quantum Risk Overblown: Michael Saylor stated that Bitcoin likely found a bottom near $60,000 after forced selling events cleared excess leverage from the market. He also dismissed concerns around quantum computing as overstated, arguing it does not pose a near-term threat to Bitcoin’s security.
Big thanks for making it to the end of this week’s Hodl Report! 👊
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The more, the merrier - because who doesn’t love a bigger party? 🥳
Happy Friday!
Disclaimer: The content from Hodl Report should not be taken as trading, investment or financial advice or solicitation to buy or sell any assets. This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. Please be careful out there and DYOR (do your own research)