Good day, digital daredevils!

Welcome to the Hodl Report, your front-row seat to the rollercoaster ride that is the crypto market!” 🎢📉📈📉📈

Here’s what we have for you this week:

• Markets recover ↗️

• Crypto outlook tied to US politics 📊

• Crypto’s finest news from the week 📰

• Ethereum ETF launch incoming🚀

This past week in the crypto world has been crazier than a cat on catnip at a rave. Buckle up and HODL on tight! 🙀

With markets recovering from the recent German sell off, is it too soon to say we’re back?

Germany just pulled the ultimate crypto faux pas, selling off all 50,000 BTC over 23 days. The crypto community is dunking on them harder than LeBron at a high school game, blaming them for tanking the market. And get this - the cash they made from selling that BTC isn't even enough to cover a month’s interest on their national debt. It only covered 8% of their annual interest payments, which are a whopping €40 billion!

Also this week, in a twist crazier than any soap opera, Donald Trump gets shot at, and suddenly Bitcoin's price shoots up 📈. Investors tend to flock to (traditionally) gold, but now also Bitcoin, when turmoil strikes. It goes to show how far crypto has come as a hedge! The market’s volatility is back, bouncing around like a toddler on a sugar high. For those who’ve held on for the past two years, this feels like déjà vu. 👀

Trump's odds of winning soared to an all-time high of 72% after the assassination attempt, though they've now retraced to 64%. On the flip side, Biden’s chances of bowing out increased to 68% after his recent Covid diagnosis. 😷

And in another twist, Trump has picked JD Vance as his VP. Vance is a hardcore HODLer with $250k in BTC and a track record of fighting for the crypto community. He’s the guy who pushed to repeal SAB 121, slammed the SEC for mishandling The Debt Box incident, and introduced a bill to protect crypto firms from bank discrimination. Now, that’s a crypto champion! 🏆

In a move that has everyone scratching their heads, Trump is considering Jamie Dimon for Secretary of the Treasury. Yep, the same Dimon who called Bitcoin a scam and said it’s only good for “criminals, drug traffickers, money laundering, and tax avoidance.” Maybe it’s the “keep your enemies closer” strategy? Or perhaps Dimon’s recent dabbling in crypto with JP Morgan has softened his stance. One thing’s for sure either way, this combo is as confusing as a mime on a conference call. 👐☎️

Where do things go from here?

Mark Cuban is bullish on Trump’s potential win, predicting that it’ll lead to easier operations for crypto businesses and changes at the SEC. Plus with Trump’s policies historically leading to inflation, and the global uncertainty with the US dollar, people might flock to Bitcoin as a safe haven, all positive pressure on an upwards Bitcoin price.

Since the beginning of Bitcoin, there’s a guarantee in crypto - it never fails to deliver drama, spectacles, absurd stories, and larger-than-life personalities. Buckle up, because the ride is just getting started! 🎢🚀

1. Bitcoin trading volume has been exponentially growing: Looking at over the counter (OTC) volume alone and not even considering centralized exchange (CEX) volume, Bitcoin has seen about 100k BTC changing hands every week. Compare this to 70k BTC flowing in all of 2021.

2. Poll shows majority of Mt. Gox creditors will hodl their Bitcoin: According to a poll in the subreddit for Mt. Gox creditors, 56% of creditors will hodl their Bitcoin repayments, while 20% would sell it all. 20% said they would sell a portion of their repayments. In the end it’s a subreddit poll, so take that with a grain of salt.

3. Fake Satoshi assets frozen: Craig Wright, the self proclaimed (in 2016) Satoshi Nakamoto (anonymous founder of Bitcoin), the suer of those that spoke out against his claim, the forger of evidence to support his claim, has officially been ruled by the courts as NOT being Satoshi (although we all knew this unofficially already). His assets were frozen so those he launched defamation and libel lawsuits against could recoup their legal fees.

4. Craig Wright investigated for perjury and potentially faces criminal charges: As a follow up to his assets being frozen, the British judge ruling on his defamation case has suggested that a criminal investigation be needed due to Wright’s alleged attempts to silence outspoken developers and control the Bitcoin network.

5. Donald Trump is planning to launch his fourth NFT collection: With his previous 3 NFT collections being a success and selling out 45,000 NFTs each time, Trump plans to launch a fourth collection because “the people want me to do another one.” He goes on to say: “But the thing I really noticed was everything was paid in - I would say almost all of it was paid in crypto, in this new currency. And it opened my eyes.”

Ethereum ETF Launch

The Crypto Sequel We’ve All Been Waiting For

It’s official! Ethereum ETFs are on their way, and they should be launching as soon as next week. Yep, you heard that right—next week! The SEC has signaled a potential July 23rd launch date for these ETH ETFs, and it's happened exponentially faster than the Bitcoin ETF.

Remember the long, winding road Bitcoin ETFs took to get here? Rejections, resubmissions, and endless anticipation - Bitcoin walked so Ethereum could run. BTC ETFs finally broke through, and now ETH ETFs are expected to follow much faster. It’s like BTC is the seasoned elder sibling who had to argue curfew extensions with the parents, making it easier for ETH to sneak out late with less hassle. 😎

🚀 Go Time: Who's in the Game?

Eight heavy hitters are set to launch their ETH ETFs on the U.S. stock markets:

• BlackRock

• Fidelity

• Bitwise

• 21 Shares

• VanEck

• Invesco

• Franklin Templeton

• Grayscale

The SEC has asked these companies to finalize their S-1 registration statements, including details on management fees which have a bit of a range hovering around 0.2-0.25%, including funds many offering introductory 0% fees for the first few months or until a set volume is reached.

While the inflows to the upcoming Ethereum ETF certainly won’t be as large as those to the Bitcoin ETF, analysts are pegging the inflows in the tens of billions, with many predicting it will drive ETH prices up over $5k by the end of 2024.

Our take? ETH’s ETF launch might have a bigger impact to price than BTC’s did, due to a few key reasons:

1. Inflation Rate: ETH’s current inflation rate is 0%. Recently, it was even deflationary as some ETH is burned out of circulation with every transaction. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s inflation rate stands at 0.84%.

2. Stakers vs. Miners: ETH stakers don’t face the same sell pressures as Bitcoin miners, who have to cover hardware, upkeep and electricity costs.

3. Staked ETH: 28% of all ETH is currently staked, reducing the available supply for ETFs to buy​.

The Big Question: What’s the Narrative? 📜

For these ETFs to really take off, ETH needs a narrative to lure in traditional (non-crypto) investors. Remember when Ethereum was dubbed the “world’s computer” versus Bitcoin being the “store of value”? Now, with staking yields (though not applicable to ETFs just yet), ETH can be seen as a yield-generating asset. So, what's the new story?

We need a killer narrative that screams stability, innovation, and profit potential to attract traditional investors. Maybe something like, "ETH: Powering the Future of Decentralized Finance and Yield" - or we’ll leave the catchy titles to the pros. But one thing's for sure: the ETH ETF launch is going to be a game-changer!