Crypto Tried to Break Out... The Fed Said No
Crypto pushed higher, but hot inflation data and a hawkish Fed crushed the breakout. Rate cuts fade, volatility returns, and a $60K retest may be next
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This week we finally clawed back $70K… then pushed it even further to $76K (the highest we’ve seen in a while).
For a brief moment… sentiment returned.
Hope. Optimism. Green candle therapy.
And then…
Economic data dropped and chose violence.
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This week started off looking… suspiciously bullish.
Even with the Iran war heating up, oil ripping higher, and geopolitical chaos doing its usual thing - markets were holding up.
Bitcoin didn’t care.
It pushed all the way to $76K, printing fresh local highs and dragging sentiment up with it.
For a moment, it felt like the tide had turned.
Then… macro showed up.
The vibe flipped the second U.S. economic data dropped.
February inflation came in hot across the board:
Headline PPI: 3.4% (vs 2.9% expected)
Core PPI: 3.9% (vs 3.7% expected)
Monthly PPI: 0.7% (vs 0.3% expected)
Yeah… that’s not “cooling inflation.” That’s inflation doing push-ups.
And remember, this data is pre-Iran war impact. Meaning oil spikes and supply disruptions haven’t even hit the numbers yet.
So what did the Fed do?
Exactly what you’d expect.
Powell held rates steady.
No cuts. No pivot. No fun.
And crypto did what crypto does best…
Dump first, ask questions later.
Meanwhile:
Oil and gas repriced higher
Rate cut expectations got slashed
Markets now pricing in one cut… maybe zero for the rest of 2026
That’s a problem for risk assets.
Less easing = less liquidity = less rocket fuel.
The reality?
We’re probably not done with the chop.
Sentiment tried to flip… but macro pulled it back.
And yeah, a retest of the $60Ks is very much on the table. In fact, it might even be necessary.
Because in crypto, you don’t get clean reversals.
You get pain → doubt → retest → then the move.
At least we got one solid W this week.
The SEC finally admitted what we’ve been screaming for years… most crypto assets aren’t securities.
Took them long enough.
In the meantime, trade smart and stay patient.
And don’t let one green week convince you the war is over.
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Hodl Headlines
The Week’s Most Interesting News
Traders Can Now Bet on the S&P 500 24/7: New crypto-native products now allow investors to trade synthetic exposure to the S&P 500 around the clock, bypassing traditional market hours and exchanges. The development highlights how blockchain rails are reshaping access to global financial markets.
Mastercard to Acquire Stablecoin Firm BVNK: Mastercard has agreed to acquire crypto payments infrastructure firm BVNK for up to $1.8 billion, signaling a major push into stablecoin-based settlement rails. The deal reflects growing competition among global payment giants to integrate blockchain into core financial systems.
U.S. SEC Issues Long-Awaited Crypto Guidance: The SEC released new guidance clarifying how digital assets may be classified and regulated under existing securities laws. The framework is expected to shape compliance strategies across exchanges, issuers, and institutional players.
North Carolina Proposes State Bitcoin Reserve: North Carolina lawmakers introduced a bill to allocate public funds into Bitcoin as part of a state reserve strategy. The proposal reflects a growing trend of U.S. states exploring crypto as a treasury asset.
Document Leak Links President Milei to Libra Promotion: A leaked cache of documents reportedly ties Argentine President Javier Milei to the promotion of the Libra crypto project. The allegations raise political and regulatory questions around crypto endorsements at the highest level.
UK Wife Accused of Stealing $176M in Bitcoin: A UK woman is accused of stealing roughly $176 million in Bitcoin after allegedly obtaining her partner’s seed phrase, with CCTV evidence playing a key role in the case. The incident underscores ongoing risks tied to self-custody and private key security.
U.S. Banks Build Tokenized Deposit Network: Major U.S. banks are developing a shared tokenized deposit network to counter the rise of stablecoins and maintain control over payment flows. The initiative aims to modernize banking infrastructure while preserving regulatory oversight.
Strategy Now Holds More Bitcoin Than BlackRock: MicroStrategy (Strategy) has accumulated more Bitcoin than BlackRock’s ETF holdings, reinforcing its position as the largest corporate holder of BTC. The milestone highlights the firm’s aggressive treasury strategy and conviction in Bitcoin.
Crypto Millionaire Targeted in Kidnapping Plot: A crypto investor was reportedly targeted in a kidnapping attempt aimed at forcing access to digital wallets. The case highlights the growing physical security risks associated with large crypto holdings.
Big thanks for making it to the end of this week’s Hodl Report! 👊
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Happy Friday!
Disclaimer: The content from Hodl Report should not be taken as trading, investment or financial advice or solicitation to buy or sell any assets. This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. Please be careful out there and DYOR (do your own research)