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Howdy Hodlers!

Throughout the week, we watched chaos slowly get priced out of the market as the Iran ceasefire held stronger and new de-escalation headlines kept rolling in.

Markets loved it. And they showed it.

Bitcoin ripped back above $78K and just like that, vibes improved. 📈

So now the real questions:

Where do we go from here?
What happens after the war narrative fades?

And what’s next week bringing?

Oh right… we have big news coming at you! 📢

Let’s get into it 👇

Look, we’re enjoying the green. The vibes are back. Bitcoin’s moving.

We were due for this.

But before everyone starts screaming “bull run is back,” let’s talk about the thing that actually matters…

Liquidity

Ah yes… that sweet, sweet, market-juicing nectar. The only thing that really sends Bitcoin to Valhalla.

Alright, we’re done drooling.

More liquidity = more risk-taking = more crypto inflows.

Simple. Beautiful. Bullish.

But here’s the catch:

The end of the war doesn’t automatically mean more liquidity.

In fact… it might mean the opposite (at least short term).

Why?

Follow the Chain Reaction:

• Oil prices stay elevated post-war

• Elevated oil → higher costs everywhere

• Higher costs → higher inflation

• Higher inflation → Fed stays hawkish

• Hawkish Fed → higher rates

• Higher rates → less liquidity

Not exactly the rocket fuel we’re hoping for.

And that’s just one thread.

At play, we’ve also got:

• Jobs & unemployment (hello AI layoffs)

• CPI / PPI prints

• GDP growth

• General economic health

Basically… a full macro spaghetti bowl. 🍝

Translation: Nobody Knows

There are way too many moving pieces.

Anyone telling you they know exactly what happens next? Yeah… they’re selling something.

(And yes, that includes us 😅)

But, there’s a potential big narrative shift looming…

The Market Structure Bill.

But timing is everything.

If it hits with liquidity → 🚀
If not → same old story: bullish news, no price reaction.

Let’s not mess this one up again… cough Trump 👀

So how are we playing it?

Here’s our current positioning:

👉 Short term:
War de-escalation = good vibes = markets push higher or chop sideways

👉 Mid term:
War headlines fade → attention shifts back to the Fed
New Fed chair (Warsh) enters → uncertainty ramps
“Sell in May” energy kicks in → Potential pullback and retest of $60Ks

👉 Long term:
Reassess once the dust settles, but mid terms are approaching and most likely a healthy market leading up.

And lastly… next week?

We’ve got big news coming. 📢

So stay tuned.

Until then:

Trade smart.
Manage risk.
And for the love of Satoshi…

Don’t get liquidated! 💀

1.  Strategy Back in Profit as Bitcoin Climbs to $76,300: Strategy (MicroStrategy) has returned to profitability as Bitcoin rallied to a two-and-a-half-month high above $76K. The rebound highlights how leveraged corporate Bitcoin strategies remain highly sensitive to BTC price movements.

2. Kevin Warsh Invests in Bitcoin Startup: Former Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh has taken a stake in a Bitcoin-focused startup, adding political and institutional credibility to the sector. The move reflects growing alignment between traditional policymakers and crypto innovation.

3. Drift Secures $148M From Tether After Exploit: DeFi platform Drift raised $148 million from Tether and partners following a major exploit and is replacing Circle’s stablecoin with USDT. The shift underscores competitive dynamics in the stablecoin market and the role of capital injections in recovery efforts.

4. Polymarket Bettors Favor Adam Back as Satoshi: Prediction market Polymarket shows rising odds that cryptographer Adam Back could be Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. The trend reflects ongoing fascination with Bitcoin’s origins and the use of markets to price probabilistic narratives.

5. Wall Street Trading to Crypto via Solana: New high-speed data infrastructure is being deployed on Solana to bring institutional-grade trading capabilities to crypto markets. The development aims to reduce latency and align crypto trading environments with traditional finance standards.

6. France Prepares New Measures to Combat Crypto-Related Kidnappings: French authorities are planning new security and legal measures to address a rise in kidnappings targeting crypto holders. The move reflects increasing concern over the physical risks associated with digital asset wealth.

Big thanks for making it to the end of this week’s Hodl Report! 👊

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Happy Friday!

Disclaimer: The content from Hodl Report should not be taken as trading, investment or financial advice or solicitation to buy or sell any assets. This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. Please be careful out there and DYOR (do your own research)