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Howdy, Tariff-Troubled Traders!

You’re reading the Hodl Report, where we untangle the macro madness and decode what tariffs mean for your bags - because someone’s gotta read the fine print. 📃👀

This week in the Hodl Report, we break down:

• Tariffs Decoded: What Trump’s moves mean for crypto 🔍

• Bullish vs. Bearish: Quick hits from both sides 🐂

• Top Crypto News: The must-know headlines 📰

• Meme Therapy: Because charts don’t hug back 🤣

Knock, knock!
Who’s there?
Tariffs!
Tariffs who?
Tariffs on!
Huh?
Nope, tariffs off!
Okay?
Joking, tariffs back on…well some of them. And new tariffs added. But first, tariffs off. Except the ones that are still on. And some are paused. Except the other ones still on. And the new ones added. But some of those are paused too.

Yeah, we’re confused too.

But here’s the point: amid all the flip-flopping, fear, and market freak-outs, everyone seems to be forgetting one crucial thing…

It’s literally been less than a week.

Markets are melting down, Twitter’s screaming about the end of the dollar, and everyone’s panicking that Trump’s tariffs will send us spiraling into economic collapse. But maybe, just maybe…

We chill.

What we’re seeing is a complete shake-up of the global trade order - and that takes time.

The U.S. is trying something bold. Would you rather they stick to the same broken game plan?

Keep piling on unsustainable debt?

Keep letting foreign governments (*cough, China) steal IP without consequence? Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary thinks China should have a 400% tariff!

You voted for change.

Well, this is what change looks like.

Messy. Volatile. And maybe, just maybe, necessary.

Okay rant over.

But yeah, we agree, the rollout of the plan has been a full-on sh*t show.

But that might be the point.

We talked about it Tuesday - calculated chaos - is a tool in Trump’s playbook.

He’s been clear and consistent with his plan (up until now), and if you believe he’ll continue delivering on it, then now is the time to lean in.

He even dropped some hints this week

Okay, we admit… Eric Trump said the same thing about ETH in February, and it’s down over 50% now… yikes.

💡 So What’s the Next Move?

We’re seeing:

• 😱 Extreme fear in the markets

• ⌛ Total impatience from traders

• 💸 Asset prices down bad

• ✅ Tariff pause bounce

• 🔄 Regulatory shifts trending positive

• 💧 Liquidity + rate cuts likely coming

Translation:

This is the perfect setup for a monster bull run…and if we hit boss level, we’ll finally see Bitcoin break free from risk assets and gold and stand tall as its own damn asset class!

But only those with the patience to wait out the noise will win in this game.

Speaking of noise, amidst it all, make sure you don’t miss this gem of Trump’s love of the word ‘groceries’.

Now, let’s dive into the weekly hopium roundup and break down what’s bullish and what’s bearish in the crypto market right now. 👇

Bullish vs. Bearish

🐂⚔️🐻

The Battle for the Market Narrative 

Crypto is a rollercoaster, and right now the tracks are splitting in two - one headed toward liftoff, the other toward "wait, was that the top?"

So let’s break down exactly what’s going on in both directions and where we think the real momentum lies.

📈 BULLISH CASE: Perfect Storm for a Mega Pump

💸 Buying Demand Is Surging

• Corporations are stacking BTC like it's toilet paper in 2020.

• Pensions and funds (yes, those TradFi dinosaurs) are finally embracing crypto. Larry Fink, the OG hater at BlackRock, now says 2% BTC allocation makes sense in portfolios.

• States and nations are building their own Bitcoin Strategic Reserves, triggering a global accumulation race.

• And don’t forget: retail hasn’t even shown up yet (unless you count memecoin degen roulette).

💥 Supply Crunch Is Real

• All these big buyers? Long-term hodlers, not weak-handed swing traders.

• With only 21M Bitcoin in existence (and millions already lost forever), the recent halving of the new supply behind us, the squeeze is coming. We dive deeper on the supply crunch here.

🏛️ Regulatory Winds Are Blowing Our Way

• Lawsuits dropped, banks greenlit, and de-regulation in motion. There’s so much more to unpack here, and it deserves its own deep dive, but for now we’re keeping it high level. Just know this: regulation vibes have done a full 180, and we’re now in the most crypto-friendly environment we’ve ever seen, and Bitcoin still mooned back when the vibes were terrible.

• Stablecoin legislation incoming → could normalize crypto to the masses, cut TradFi costs, and extend USD dominance globally.

• The Trump admin is going all-in on stablecoins, which could flood the crypto system with new users and capital from emerging markets.

🌎 Macro Tailwinds Are Strong

• M2 liquidity is rising, and Bitcoin is literally tracing it on a 108-day delay. Right now, May 3rd looks like go-time.

• Interest rates expected to fall, with Trump’s chaos pushing the Fed to act fast.

• The U.S. has massive debt to refinance, and lower rates are the only way out.

And hey, we’re still early.

Bitcoin as an asset class is a teenager.

Acne, mood swings, wild potential.

📉 BEARISH CASE: Reasons to Tread Carefully

💤 Narrative Exhaustion

• Most bullish news? Already priced in.

• No major new catalysts on the horizon outside of stablecoin legislation.

• We're mostly waiting for updates to existing headlines to keep the hype alive.

🚨 Trade War Mayhem

• Tariffs = market chaos.

• Chaos = flight from risk assets (yes, that includes crypto).

• This time, it’s not just China, we’re even spooking traditional U.S. allies. The whole system’s shaking.

🔴 Bear Market… Already?

• What if that last ATH was the top for this cycle?

• The 4-year cycle may be slowing down or changing entirely. Maybe it's longer. Maybe it’s toast. Time will tell.

☢️ Black Swan Threats

• Wars, nukes, disasters - the unpredictable monsters that crash markets with no warning.

• Can’t prevent ‘em, but you can hedge: stop losses if you're basic, or strategic shorts if you're pro.

🔮 The Long-Term Play

Zoom out, and here’s what matters:

• The noise? Just volatility doing its thing.

• Crypto’s core thesis is untouched.

• The tech, the use case, the movement - it’s all still here.

And that’s the only thing you should be worried about.

So if you’re a long-term holder, ignore the drama, embrace the dip, and keep stacking!

1. Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Audit Now 5 Days Overdue: The strategic audit of the Trump administration's Bitcoin reserve is now five days late, raising transparency concerns. Critics are demanding clarity on the U.S.'s crypto holdings.

2. DOJ Disbands Crypto Enforcement Team Amid Memo Leak: The DOJ has quietly dissolved its National Crypto Enforcement Team (NCET) following internal controversy and political pressure. A leaked memo ties the decision to Trump advisor Todd Blanche, raising concerns over crypto regulation rollback.

3. Trump Signs Repeal of Biden-Era IRS Crypto Rule: Trump has officially repealed a controversial IRS crypto reporting rule introduced under Biden. Lawmakers say the rollback will ease burdens on U.S. crypto users and businesses.

4. Arthur Hayes Hints at Major China Liquidity Shift: Arthur Hayes suggests China may soon re-enter crypto markets via offshore liquidity channels. He believes the shift could trigger a massive Bitcoin buying spree if confirmed.

5. Trump Asks SCOTUS to Let Him Fire Top Financial Regulators: Trump has petitioned the Supreme Court for power to fire heads of financial agencies, including the SEC and CFTC. The request could dramatically reshape crypto regulation if granted.

6. Ripple Acquires Prime Broker Hidden Road for $1.3B: Ripple has purchased Hidden Road, a crypto-friendly prime broker, for $1.3 billion. The deal gives Ripple deeper access to institutional liquidity and expands its global footprint.

7. Pakistan Converts Bitcoin Miners Into AI Data Centers: Pakistan is repurposing Bitcoin mining farms into AI-powered data centers, using excess hydropower to support new digital infrastructure. The move reflects a shift from mining to more diversified tech use cases.

8. XRP Jumps 7% as First Leveraged ETF Launches on NYSE: XRP spiked 7% ahead of the NYSE debut of the first-ever leveraged XRP ETF. The product offers 2x exposure and signals growing institutional appetite for altcoin-based derivatives.

9. WLFi Proposes $1 Stablecoin Airdrop to Token Holders: World Liberty Financial plans to airdrop $1 stablecoins to WLFi token holders in an experimental distribution model. The goal is to bootstrap adoption for its upcoming dollar-backed asset.

10. Pakistan Appoints CZ as Crypto Policy Adviser: In a surprising move, Pakistan has named Changpeng Zhao (CZ) as an official adviser on crypto policy. The appointment follows the country’s pivot toward AI and digital assets integration.

Big thanks for making it to the end of this week’s Hodl Report! 👊

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Happy Friday!

Disclaimer: The content from Hodl Report should not be taken as trading, investment or financial advice or solicitation to buy or sell any assets. This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. Please be careful out there and DYOR (do your own research).