The 2026 Setup: Slow Now, Explosive Later
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Howdy Hodlers!
Did you catch the headline of the week?
One of the biggest asset managers on Earth just did a full 180 on crypto… and it’s a massive deal.
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To start off the week, Vanguard, the $11 trillion behemoth famous for being allergic to fun, volatility, and anything remotely degen…
Just opened the gates to crypto ETFs.
The market loved it.
Bitcoin ripped back above $90K on the news before cooling off (because of course it did… volatility is part of the charm).
Why is this such a big moment?
Vanguard controls $11 TRILLION in assets.
Their clients (aka the people who own that money) can now funnel a slice into crypto ETFs.
And trust us, they will. Vanguard didn’t “see the light.” They responded to customer demand.
Any token with a U.S.-based ETF benefits: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and whatever alphabet soup comes next.
Now, in the spirit of crypto volatility (and because we’re masochists), we’ve been tracking sentiment and fundamentals like hawks. And yes - we’re still evolving our thesis.
Our superpower?
Unlike CT influencers, we’re not married to a narrative. We change our mind when the data changes. Revolutionary concept.
So where are we now? The new thesis:
Short term → sideways chop, with potential retests of recent lows.
Early new year → flip bullish, as the market tries to front-run the tidal wave of liquidity and catalysts coming in 2026.
Think of it like a crypto price chart:
Slow… slow… slow… and then BAM - face-melting speed.
That’s exactly how the 2026 setup is forming. Quiet build-up now, violent acceleration later.
Let’s break down the incoming catalysts for 2026 👇
1) Tax Liquidity
Slowly Now:
Everyone (funds, institutions, degen retail with $87 in Robinhood) is finishing up tax-loss harvesting and end-of-year positioning. The vibe is “clean the books, touch grass. 2026 fresh start.”
2026 Suddenly:
Tax refunds. Stimmy checks (yes, again). And whispers of removing income tax entirely.
All that fresh liquidity? It’s not buying bonds, champ. It’s going straight into whatever’s pumping the hardest. Spoiler: that’s crypto (and probably AI/tech stocks).
2) Interest Rates
Slowly Now:
One more rate cut expected in December. Yawn.
2026 Suddenly:
Enter Trump’s new Fed chair (likely Hassett), a man whose love language is aggressive rate cuts. Imagine the Fed swapping its kale smoothie for preworkout. That’s 2026 monetary policy.
3) Money Printing
Slowly Now:
As of Dec. 1, QT officially died. The liquidity drain is over. The sucking sound has stopped.
2026 Suddenly:
QE returns like a WWE villain, slowly at first then slamming chairs, dropping elbows, juicing everything before midterms. If you thought 2020 money-printing was wild… lol just wait.
4) Institutional Adoption
Slowly Now:
Vanguard finally bent the knee. Their $11T is now ETF-eligible for crypto.
2026 Suddenly:
Charles Schwab turns on crypto trading in January ($12T AUM). Bank of America opens crypto allocations in Q1 2026. Who’s left? At this point your grandma is the only remaining non-participant. And even she’s asking about “that Solana coin.”
5) Regulation
Slowly Now:
Regulation has adamantly pivoted pro-crypto. The SEC is prepping a new “launch first, comply later” exemption policy, basically the opposite of the last 7 years of warfare.
2026 Suddenly:
The Market Structure Act is expected to drop - defining everything digital asset-related (security, commodity, token, collectible, stablecoin) and finally removing the boogeyman blocking TradFi from going all in. This is the regulatory green light institutions have been waiting for.
6) Retail
Slowly Now:
Retail is traumatized and hiding in the basement after memecoin mania roasted their savings. They’ll peek their heads further out once vibes improve.
2026 Suddenly:
New ATHs hit. TikTok starts screaming. Coinbase downloads moon. Retail FOMO returns like a zombie horde awakened by the smell of gains.
Feel the shift yet?
Sentiment’s been sneaking upward, even if the chart is currently screaming in fear.
And lol… as we write this, Bitcoin is yeeting itself into the mid-$80Ks again.
Typical.
Just zoom out a little.
Not even a lot.
2026 is shaping up to be glorious.
Until then - stay safe, stay spot, but stay degen! 😜
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Hodl Headlines
The Week’s Most Interesting News
Vanguard Opens the Door to Bitcoin and Digital-Asset ETFs:: Vanguard’s openness to offering Bitcoin and broader digital-asset ETFs marks a major potential shift - adding one of the world’s largest asset managers to the growing list of traditional institutions embracing crypto exposure. The move could attract significant capital, accelerating crypto’s integration into mainstream portfolios.
MrBeast to Launch Financial Services Platform Including Crypto: Content-creator MrBeast plans to roll out a new financial-services platform aimed at his large following, with early signals pointing toward crypto and digital-asset offerings. The initiative may bring a new wave of retail users into crypto, especially younger demographics already aligned with Web3 and digital payments.
First Chainlink ETF Debuts: The inaugural Chainlink ETF has started trading, offering regulated exposure to LINK tokens and marking a milestone for alt-coin adoption within traditional investment frameworks. The launch reflects growing demand from investors seeking diversified crypto exposure beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
UK Recognizes Crypto as Property with Full Legal Status: The U.K. passed the Property (Digital Assets etc.) Act, officially classifying cryptocurrencies and stablecoins as legal property subject to ownership, inheritance, and insolvency laws. The reform ends long-standing legal ambiguity and grants crypto-holders full protection under property law.
IMF Warns Stablecoins Could Erode Central-Bank Control: The IMF cautioned that widespread adoption of stablecoins might undermine central-bank monetary control and complicate financial-system stability. The warning serves as a reminder of potential macro-economic risks as stablecoins expand beyond niche use cases.
Strategy Inc. Announces a $1.44B Reserve: Strategy revealed it has set aside a $1.44 billion reserve behind its Bitcoin holdings, while updating financial guidance - a move aimed at cushioning volatility and reinforcing long-term confidence in its treasury-heavy business model.
Crypto House Confirms “Choke-Point 2.0”: A major crypto-market infrastructure provider issued a warning about a new wave of systemic strain (dubbed “Choke-Point 2.0”) that could impair liquidity and settlement efficiency across exchanges and DeFi platforms. The alert underscores growing concern over fragility in crypto plumbing under market stress.
Big thanks for making it to the end of this week’s Hodl Report! 👊
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Happy Friday!
Disclaimer: The content from Hodl Report should not be taken as trading, investment or financial advice or solicitation to buy or sell any assets. This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. Please be careful out there and DYOR (do your own research)