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Howdy Hodlers,

Another week, another sideways grind - with just enough lower lows to keep everyone questioning reality.

WTF’s going on? One trader’s got a theory… and honestly, the data’s backing him up. 👀

We’ll break down why the bleed might finally be nearing its end, and when the next leg up could ignite.

Let’s dig into the madness. 👇

The current downwards trend and continual dips?

Pure retail panic. Fundamentals are chillin’... nothing has changed.

What we’re seeing is textbook bull-market turbulence, just juiced up by over-leveraged futures traders and headline-driven hysteria.

Here’s the plot twist no one likes hearing:

Bitcoin OGs are quietly cashing out right now.

They’re distributing bags like founders after an IPO. Slow, methodical, emotionless. That’s why BTC looks sleepy while the S&P, Nasdaq, and even gold are hitting new ATHs.

But this isn’t weakness.

It’s the silent IPO of Bitcoin.

The phase where early whales take profits, and smart money steps in to accumulate. Institutions, liquidity, and a risk-on environment are all lined up like bowling pins.

Yeah, it’s uncomfortable. It’s confusing. It feels wrong.

But this is what success looks like.

The OG whales get their exit. More new whales start accumulating. We get a stronger, more distributed Bitcoin… one that’s finally maturing from revolutionary experiment to durable monetary asset.

Despite the ongoing rotation, we still think the next euphoric leg up is coming, no matter how loud the 4-year-cycle preachers scream, “Top is in!”

We used to chant that too. Then we actually looked at the data. 📊

And the data’s whispering: “Not done yet.”

Here’s what could light the next fuse:

• 🏛️ U.S. government shutdown ending: Once the lights turn back on, policy gears start spinning again and markets regain confidence.
  

• 💸 Stimulus & printing: The money hose is coming back online - Powell confirmed himself that it will start at the end of November.
  

• ⚖️ Market Structure Bill & Clarity Act: These bad boys widen the on-ramp for digital assets. Regulatory clarity = green light for the big dogs.

When those votes go through, liquidity floods in — and the same people screaming “it’s over” will be scrambling to rebuy higher.

Meanwhile, the recent “blue wave” of election results was a friendly reminder: this golden era of crypto freedom may have an expiration date.

As Commissioner Hester “Crypto Mom” Peirce said:

"Use this time to build things that are valuable, that are good, that meet the needs of your fellow Americans, people across the world,”

Translation: We’ve got a window. Use it.

Because the market, regulatory conditions and participation of TradFi and governemnts has never looked so good for Bitcoin and crypto.

📈 Buckle up. The boring part ends soon.

1. JPMorgan Analysts Predict Bitcoin Could Hit $170,000 in Next 6-12 Months: Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. project that Bitcoin could climb to around $170,000 as its valuation gap relative to gold narrows and derivative market deleveraging takes place. The bullish forecast reflects strengthening institutional participation and the maturation of crypto as an investable asset class.

2. Bitcoin’s ‘Silent IPO’: Early Holders Exit: The crypto market is undergoing a phase where dormant long-term holders of Bitcoin are quietly off-loading coins while institutions ramp up accumulation - signaling a shift from retail-led to professional ownership. On-chain data and large block trades suggest Bitcoin is evolving into a more mature financial asset.

3. Samourai Wallet Developer Sentenced to Five Years: Developer Keonne Rodriguez was given the statutory maximum five-year prison term for operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business via the privacy-focused wallet service Samourai Wallet, accused of laundering over $200 million in illicit funds. The case highlights intensifying regulatory scrutiny on crypto-mixing services and the privacy tools ecosystem.

4. IREN & Cipher Mining Stocks Soar on AI Deals: Miners IREN Limited and Cipher Mining Inc. rocked the market with multi-billion-dollar AI infrastructure contracts (including Nvidia GPUs and AWS capacity), driving their stocks higher and signaling a pivot of Bitcoin-centric firms into AI-data-center roles. Their move underscores crypto mining firms diversifying beyond just mining into broader Web3 infra.

5. Trump Doubles Down on US Crypto Leadership: President Donald Trump has reiterated that the U.S. must lead globally in crypto and blockchain, framing Bitcoin and digital assets as strategic components of national economic and technological power. His comments align with earlier policy moves such as a crypto-reserve framework and the positioning of the U.S. as a “crypto super-power.”

Big thanks for making it to the end of this week’s Hodl Report! 👊

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Happy Friday!

Disclaimer: The content from Hodl Report should not be taken as trading, investment or financial advice or solicitation to buy or sell any assets. This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. Please be careful out there and DYOR (do your own research)