Turkey, Volatility, and Hopium Pie

We reclaimed $90K, but uncertainty rules the market. Is this crypto winter or just a pre-moon correction? We break down sentiment, macro, and what’s next.

November 28, 2025

Howdy Hodlers!

Short trading week, not much action.

Oh wait… we casually reclaimed $90K.

For now. Don’t get comfy.

But what can you actually DO about the proclaimed ‘AI bubble’? Billionaires know an alternative…

Sure, if you held your stocks since the dotcom bubble, you would’ve been up—eventually. But three years after the dot-com bust the S&P 500 was still far down from its peak. So, how else can you invest when almost every market is tied to stocks?

Lo and behold, billionaires have an alternative way to diversify: allocate to a physical asset class that outpaced the S&P by 15% from 1995 to 2025, with almost no correlation to equities. It’s part of a massive global market, long leveraged by the ultra-wealthy (Bezos, Gates, Rockefellers etc).

Contemporary and post-war art.

Masterworks lets you invest in multimillion-dollar artworks featuring legends like Banksy, Basquiat, and Picasso—without needing millions. Over 70,000 members have together invested more than $1.2 billion across over 500 artworks. So far, 23 sales have delivered net annualized returns like 17.6%, 17.8%, and 21.5%.*

Want access?

Investing involves risk. Past performance not indicative of future returns. Reg A disclosures at masterworks.com/cd

Thanksgiving has always had a weird magic in crypto.

Like the market knows we’re all distracted with turkey and relatives asking if Bitcoin is “still a thing.”

But this year hits different. A lot more uncertainty. A lot more paranoia. A lot more charts that look like murder scenes.

So what do Thanksgiving prices usually look like?

Make of it what you will - it’s crypto, not science class.

Now the real question floating around every group chat:

Are we sliding into crypto winter… or is this just the pregame dump before the next mega-leg up?

We’ve been weighing the data, the sentiment, and the vibes… and honestly, the jury’s still out.

But if someone held a gun to our head (or worse, forced us to read Crypto Twitter replies), here’s what we’d point to:

  1. We haven’t hit the true short-term low yet
    Breaking below $80K is still on the table.
    But ironically… a retest of $100K first wouldn’t surprise us at all. BTC loves drama.

  2. We are seeing year-end profit taking + tax-loss harvesting
    Funds gotta show returns and harvest losses. Everyone’s cooking the books before January. Ultimately leading to sell pressure (ie. price go down).

  3. Tariffs are reshaping the entire macro structure

    The market is operating in a brand-new, weird macro format. We're all basically beta testers.

  4. Liquidity should explode early next year

    Money printing to resume and rate cutting continues. New year = new capital flows. Risk resets. Money moves.

  5. New Fed Chair incoming

    And you KNOW Trump is gonna pick someone who’ll cut rates like a barber on commission. (Hassett looks like the frontrunner - a pro-Bitcoin Republican who loves cheap money. What could go wrong?)

    When rates drop, that $7+ trillion parked in money market funds will go hunting for yield. “Hello crypto, my old friend…” 🎶

  6. Trump will juice markets for midterms

    The man will pump everything - stocks, crypto, vibes - to erase the memory of his unhinged posts.

New ATHs before midterms?

Honestly… pretty likely.

Could be sooner if markets front-run the macro shift.

But between now and then?

Yeah… probably some pain.

The TL;DR (Because We Know You’re Eating Pie Right Now):

  • Short-term direction? Anyone’s guess.

  • Rate-cut odds are the best short-term BTC indicator.

  • More likely: bull run resumes early-to-mid 2026 → new ATHs.

  • Less likely: deep, extended crypto winter.

  • Most likely: next few weeks to months feel like winter even if they aren’t.

  • As May hits (new Fed chair) + midterms approach → EUPHORIA ROUND 2.

But predictions are mostly garbage. Anything can nuke or pump the thesis.

Unless you’re Murad… yes, that Murad, the memecoin philosopher.

He has 116 reasons.

No, we didn’t watch it.

We love hopium, but even we have limits.

But here’s your weekly dose in case last night was a rough dinner for you…

So yeah - stick with us.

We’ll keep feeding you the real sentiment, the macro tea, and whatever alpha we can scrape off the charts each week.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Let’s be thankful we’re back above $90K (for today, at least). 🦃🚀🔥

Wall Street Isn’t Warning You, But This Chart Might

Vanguard just projected public markets may return only 5% annually over the next decade. In a 2024 report, Goldman Sachs forecasted the S&P 500 may return just 3% annually for the same time frame—stats that put current valuations in the 7th percentile of history.

Translation? The gains we’ve seen over the past few years might not continue for quite a while.

Meanwhile, another asset class—almost entirely uncorrelated to the S&P 500 historically—has overall outpaced it for decades (1995-2024), according to Masterworks data.

Masterworks lets everyday investors invest in shares of multimillion-dollar artworks by legends like Banksy, Basquiat, and Picasso.

And they’re not just buying. They’re exiting—with net annualized returns like 17.6%, 17.8%, and 21.5% among their 23 sales.*

Wall Street won’t talk about this. But the wealthy already are. Shares in new offerings can sell quickly but…

*Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Important Reg A disclosures: masterworks.com/cd.

Hodl Headlines

The Week’s Most Interesting News

  1. Strategy Risks Being Dropped From Major Benchmarks: Strategy Inc. (the firm led by Michael Saylor) could be excluded from major stock indices such as the MSCI USA and Nasdaq 100 due to its heavy Bitcoin holdings, which may trigger billions in passive-fund outflows. This index-risk adds to growing investor concern over the sustainability of its Bitcoin-treasury model amid a volatile crypto environment.

  2. Texas Boots Up First Bitcoin-Based Treasury Bet: The state of Texas purchased $5 million worth of the iShares Bitcoin Trust as part of its newly created Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve - marking the first U.S. state-led Bitcoin allocation.

  3. Do Kwon Says Five-Year Sentence Is Enough for Fraud: Crypto founder Do Kwon is pushing back after being handed a five-year jail term in connection with the collapse of the Terra ecosystem - claiming the sentence is excessive given the circumstances.

  4. Nasdaq Proposes Raising Limits Bitcoin ETF: Nasdaq has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to raise the position limit for options on iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) from 250,000 to 1,000,000 contracts - a move aimed at accommodating growing institutional demand and hedging strategies.

  5. U.S. Regulator Clarifies: Banks Can Hold Crypto: A U.S. banking regulator has issued formal guidance allowing banks to hold crypto-assets solely for the purpose of covering blockchain network fees (gas), rather than as part of their investment portfolios - a narrow yet notable regulatory accommodation.

Big thanks for making it to the end of this week’s Hodl Report! 👊

If you enjoyed the ride, had a good laugh or learned a thing or two, feel free to share the love! Just copy/paste this link over to anyone:

The more, the merrier - because who doesn’t love a bigger party? 🥳

Happy Friday!

Disclaimer: The content from Hodl Report should not be taken as trading, investment or financial advice or solicitation to buy or sell any assets. This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. Please be careful out there and DYOR (do your own research)